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July 2 elections in Baja California 2007 President-elect

One of the features that characterize a democracy is: uncertainty, particularly in elections. Nothing is said until the last polls close and the last vote is counted.

So nobody should be fooled if the results produced by the polls do not match the data presented in the opinion poll published last year by the most reputed home days before polling day.

This is evidenced by the Mexican presidential election in 2006, and confirmed the election to renew the governor of Baja California in 2007.

In June 2006, according to most published surveys , Andrés Manuel López Obrador was emerging as the sure winner of the contest on July 2. But lost. In August 2007, judging by polls reform, Millennium and El Universal, the PRI candidate Jorge Hank Rhon seemed to walk towards the victory sign. Also lost.

Both the PRD and the PRI were hurt by the strong negative campaign launched against PAN party, which, coincidentally, in the two elections with one candidate ran for gray and unfriendly profile (Guadalupe Osuna and Felipe Calderón).

In 2006 and 2007, the National Action was right strategically guide the direction of the election into a referendum the opposition candidate. That is, voters appeared before the polls to vote for or against Lopez Obrador or Hank Rhon. In both cases the fear was imposed and the two candidates lost.

On July 2, 2006 and August 5, 2007, voters voted for change or continuity of the ruling party, the PAN, but to allow or prevent the coming to power of two characters with high popularity and close to the people, but at the same time, with increasing rates of rejection and negative opinion.

In Baja California and the rest of the country the year past, the fear generated in the majority of the electorate and the poor image of the opposition candidates (according to a survey Excelsior) , enable the PAN cling to power six years. *************


Examples of negative spots against AMLO and Hank Rhon:

1. López Obrador: Mexico Endangering .
2. Hank Rhon: I will buy them all.

PREP results in Baja California: Here .